Hans Blix,
the former United Nations arms inspector, has been
in this country promoting his new book,
Disarming
Iraq. He should also be collecting a lot of
apologies from the Bush administration and neocon
journalists who sneered at him for failing to find the
weapons they insisted Saddam Hussein was hoarding.
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He
was, in his tentative way, right; they, in their
belligerent way, were wrong. But they cant bear to
express regret, even as reasons for contrition mount.
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The
Iraq war, its now clear, was a folly. How costly a
folly, we dont know yet, but the postwar occupation
continues to drain blood and treasure for no apparent
gain. Just the opposite: Americas worldwide
reputation may be at its lowest ever, especially in
Europe. And the enemy is alive and well.
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The
terrorist bombings in Madrid on March 11 were exactly
what opponents of the war had warned against. More than
200 people died and 1,500 more were injured by the
blasts, which appear to have been the work of al-Qaeda
or, even more chilling, of one of the similar groups
which are now proliferating.
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A
taped message confirmed that the perpetrators were Arab
Muslims. An earlier tape by Osama bin Laden himself had
threatened to punish Spain for collaborating with the
United States.
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These
latest attacks were achieved by remote
control, not suicide tactics, with cell phones triggering
the bombs. The fanatics are refining their methods, using
more sophistication and requiring less self-destructive
devotion to the cause.
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This
should make recruiting a bit easier, so we should expect
more such attacks. The 9/11 feats may never be repeated,
but Madrids 3/11 surprise is almost surely only the
beginning of a new style of terrorism which will be very
hard to prevent.
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The
bombs had an immediate political result: They knocked the
government from power, giving the socialists a victory in
the elections held three days after the horror. Spanish
voters were furious at the government for lying by
blaming Basques, rather than Islamists, for the crimes.
Old Europe
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But
in a sense, the Spaniards were voting against George W.
Bush, whom the previous government had supported in his
wars on Iraq and Afghanistan, despite the overwhelming
unpopularity of this support among the Spanish people.
The new socialist prime minister, Jose Luis Rodriguez
Zapatero, had campaigned on a promise to bring Spanish
troops home.
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American
hawks accuse the Spanish voters of
caving in to terrorism. The charge is unjust. Spaniards
merely judge that Bushs war on
terrorism has gone badly, if not madly, awry and
that they are now paying the price in their own blood.
Like the abstaining countries the Bush crowd sneeringly
calls Old Europe (which by implication
includes the Pope), they want no further part of it.
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This
is very bad news for George W. Bush. Before the bombings
and the election, he could point to Spain as his chief
proof that his war policy hadnt ruptured
Americas traditional alliances with Europe. Now
those alliances, and American leadership, are
a shambles.
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Today
Europe is indeed anti-American, and Bush
can thank himself for that. He has put himself in the
awkward position of insisting that the Iraq war was
warranted, while in effect pleading that he was misled
into waging it by faulty intelligence even though
the results were foreseen by countless people whose only
source of information was the press. Why didnt Bush
listen to Blix, instead of his neocon brain trust?
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Judging
from his public remarks, Bush
doesnt feel chastened by events. But he can no
longer pretend to have struck crippling blows against the
shadowy terrorist network. The Madrid nightmare shows, as
it was meant to show, that the Iraq war achieved
absolutely nothing. Saddam Hussein is a worthless trophy.
He was never the enemy.
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Now
is the time to reflect on the war fever that followed the
9/11 attacks. War is so horrible, even for the victorious
side, that a country must be in an abnormal state of mind
when it is actually eager for it. The sure sign of war
fever is that its those who have reservations about
war, rather than those who urge it, who must justify
themselves.
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But
such was the mood of America very recently. Now sobriety
has begun to set in.
Wasting an Asset
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Its
sobering indeed to reflect that the
alternative to Bush will be a candidate even further to
the left than he is: John Kerry. But things have come to
such a pass that American voters, like the Spanish, may
feel that the socialist option is the lesser evil.
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Bush
has actually managed to waste one of the
Republicans traditional assets: the assurance that
they will at least try to limit federal spending. They
can no longer even blame the Democrats for staggering
budgets and record deficits.
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One
of the strange facts about todays politics is that
war has become associated with the right. The progressive
Woodrow Wilson took us into World War I. The god of
American liberals, Franklin Roosevelt, led us into World
War II. Harry Truman, another liberal Democrat, went into
Korea without even a declaration of war, setting a
precedent for Constitution-free warfare that Democrats
John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson would apply to Vietnam.
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War
is big government par excellence, yet Republicans are now
proud to claim it as their own cause, almost no matter
where, when, or why. Considering how often presidents
have found war ruinous after war fever wore off
Truman and Johnson didnt even seek re-election, and
the first George Bush lost to Bill Clinton right after
winning the Gulf War this is something
of a mystery to me.
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Meanwhile,
the real war continues, and the United States isnt winning it.
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While
Bush has been taking bows, Osama bin Laden
has been watching quietly, with a grim smile at the
Americans vanity. Let the infidel waste
Americas wealth in Iraq, he might have said.
Then we will decide where the jihad will
resume.
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An
e-mail message to an Arab-language daily in London the
night of March 11, purportedly sent by a terrorist group,
warned that another attack on the United States is
90% ready and coming soon.
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If
such a thing comes to pass, even if it misfires, it will
underline the complete futility of the Iraq war. So will
any further terrorist mischief in Europe.
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Love
your enemies but never forget that they are your
enemies. Charity isnt goofy, says
SOBRANS, my
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Joseph Sobran