Most
of the pundits agreed that President Bushs televised
surge speech had failed. It was uninspired, he delivered it
without conviction, and it didnt even produce a slight bump in the
polls. The Democrats, no longer shocked and awed, attacked it, and some
Republicans joined them, Sen. Chuck Hagel calling it the worst foreign policy
mistake since the Vietnam War; few Republicans were hardy enough to
support it. Bush himself seemed demoralized as he delivered the speech, as
if he didnt even expect anyone to believe him. It struck me as the
weariest hype I have ever seen.

But he hinted that
Iran still poses a threat to the United States. Are we back in the
mushroom cloud phase so soon? Will he dare to widen the war,
in a desperate, double-or-nothing bet on fortune? That is of course what
John McCain and the neoconservatives hope he will do. Will the Democrats
dare to oppose him if he does?

Backers of the war
demanded that the Democrats offer an alternative to the Iraq surge; but
after all, its a lot easier to get into quicksand than to get out of it,
and the Democrats arent quite bold enough to vote to cut off funding
for the war or to demand an immediate withdrawal. That would be politically
dangerous. Better to let Bush have his way and take all the heat until he
leaves office. If hes in a hole and wants to keep digging, why try to
stop him? So what if he expands the war? Whats bad for the country
may be good for the Democratic Party in 2008. The new
direction Nancy Pelosi promises can wait until then. Meanwhile, any
hope of a conservative agenda is in ruins. Bushs agenda is to fight to
the finish endlessly.

It may be idle
speculation to ask, but can Congress declare peace? It gave Bush a vague
mandate for his war on terrorism an undefined enemy
and allowed him to fill in the blanks. Bush has taken his constitutional
role as commander in chief of the armed forces in time of war to mean that
he is a decider who can pretty much define the limits of his
own authority.

That way lies
dictatorship. The basic idea of the U.S. Constitution, after all, is the
rejection of arbitrary one-man rule, and it is no accident that the two
presidents the neocons most venerate are the two most dictatorial, Lincoln
and Franklin Roosevelt. Their motto seems to be, George, be a
king! But most of the country now agrees that if we are doomed to
have one-man rule, the one man should be someone other than
George W.
Bush.
Obama Nation?

Sen. Barack Obama,
the latest Flavor of the Month, has taken a step toward becoming our next
one-man ruler by announcing that he will soon announce whether ... well,
hes reached the exploratory committee stage. Look out, Hillary!

Can he be stopped? I
think so. Unless I am mistaken, the Obama craze in the media is already
losing steam. It started when he outshone the drab John Kerry during the
2004 Democratic convention. The nations journalists, like a bunch of
desperate housewives, were in the mood for someone new and exciting.

Did Obama lack
experience, especially in foreign policy? Yes, of course, but so what? Older
politicians and their servile experts had given experience a
bad name. Even an unknown quantity was more alluring than what we were
used to. Hillary may still have the inside track for the 2008 Democratic
presidential
nomination,

but
many Democrats are
afraid she cant win. She irritates too many people, and Obama makes
her seem a bit old hat.

Such an earnest,
appealing young man! The trouble is that Obama is really not much more than
a champion high-school orator. Everyone agrees that he is intelligent and
impressive and has a great future ahead of him, and a lack of
experience also means a lack of baggage. If he has one proven
gift, it is for not making enemies. He is a black who doesnt
antagonize whites, a liberal who doesnt alarm conservatives, a Bill
Clinton who doesnt chase women. Like Clinton, he can leave everyone
in the room feeling he is so reasonable they cant really disagree with
him.

The truth is that
nobody can possibly fulfill the messianic hopes Obama arouses. His advantage
at the moment is that each of his rivals has known negatives, and he
doesnt. Not yet, anyway. But the Clintons are doubtless working to
fix that. Before you know it, Obama will probably be trying to explain away
embarrassing allegations about his past and our political life will have
returned to what we have come to think of as normal.
Keeping the Dream Alive

As I write, a Spanish
newspaper has published an unconfirmed report that Fidel Castro is finally
about to leave this world. Can it be? Can we pray that he will finally repent?

At any rate, he
leaves a devoted successor of sorts in Venezuelas odious Hugo
Chavez, who presumably thinks he has no reason to repent. Chavez has
blasphemously called Jesus Christ the greatest socialist who ever
lived, overlooking the minor difference that Jesus, unlike Castro,
managed to serve the poor without firing squads.

As the late
Jean-François Revel observed, most regimes are judged by their records, but
Communism is judged by its promises. What Revel called the
totalitarian temptation is still with us. Men like Chavez will see to it
that it doesnt die with Fidel.
Does Anyone Notice?

Unless youre
a bigger lacrosse fan than I am or even if you are you
probably know more than you want to know about the Duke University
lacrosse team. The story of the collapsing rape charges is one of those local
stories, like that of the runaway bride a couple of years ago, that take on
lives of their own in the news media and become unavoidable.

Yet something has
been missing in the saturation coverage. A serious injustice has been done,
the district attorney has acted disgracefully, and so forth. But is hiring a
stripper to entertain at a party now considered normal behavior for college
athletes? Once upon a time, such a thing would have been grounds for
expulsion. Today it goes unremarked, like the continuing moral deterioration
of American life in general.

If Islam is a religion
of peace, why are there so many fights in the NBA?
Regime Change
Begins at Home a new selection of my Confessions of a Reactionary
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Joseph Sobran